The Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) presented the revision to the macroeconomic forecast for 2021 published on November 30 of the previous year and, this May 31, it indicated that there will be a growth of the economy of 2.8%.
The main facts that would contribute to this positive performance are related to the continuity of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program; the economic growth of the main world economies (China would grow by 8.4% and the United States by 6.4%); and, the expectation in the generalized vaccination of the population against covid-19.
For the generation of this new macroeconomic forecast, several assumptions were established, among which the production of controlled crude oil, variation in imports and exports of goods and services, public investment, government spending and remittances stand out.
As a result of these assumptions, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2021 is expected to register a year-on-year growth of 2.8% (a GDP of USD 68,135 million in constant values, while in 2020 the GDP was 66,308 million )
One of the factors in this projection is the price of oil. After the average export price of Ecuadorian crude in 2020 stood at $ 35.62 per barrel, lower by $ 19.7 compared to 2019, for 2021 there is an expectation of recovery of the international price of oil associated with the OPEC + alliance, that reduces its supply of crude in order to stabilize it with demand.
The Central Bank warned that mobility restrictions have slowing effects on economic recovery, particularly in tourism-related service activities.
In addition, among the expected results for 2021, it indicates that Government Expenditure will decrease by 0.03% in 2021 compared to 2020, which is mainly explained by the cut in the items of wages and salaries, and the purchase of goods and services.
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