The health crisis and the reduction in oil prices affect the Ecuadorian economy.
Authorities, economists and international organizations agree that Ecuador will have a significant fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020.
The effects of the coronavirus pandemic added to the fall in oil prices and the lack of tools to face the crisis make Ecuador a vulnerable country.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published an analysis showing that the world economy in 2020 will fall by 3%, but by 2021 there would be a recovery, reaching growth of 5.8%.
In relation to Ecuador, the IMF sees a fall of 6.3% and growth of 3.9% by 2021.
A similar picture was projected by the World Bank. The entity indicated that Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Venezuela) will fall by 4.6%, while it predicted that the recovery in 2021 would be 2.6%.
Regarding Ecuador, he said that the fall would be 6% and in 2021 there would be a recovery of 3.1%.
Finance Minister Richard Martinez noted that GDP would decline this year in a range of -3% to -7%.
These figures are only comparable with what happened in 1999 with the banking crisis, when GDP stood at 6.3%.
On this occasion, it is expected that even for oil exports the country will receive USD 2.5 billion less.
For the economist Alberto Acosta Burneo, the contraction is inevitable, but the level of said fall may be moderated by government measures.
Acosta Burneo clarified that the situation Ecuador is going through is due to the fact that in relation to other countries, ours was less prepared since it had no savings.
He suggested adopting measures to activate the economy taking into account the behavior of the population to avoid further contagion with COVID-19.
He also recommended giving companies flexibility to prevent them from closing.
Source: El Universo, social networks
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