US President Joe Biden’s low approval rates, mixed with a widespread sense that the country is heading in the wrong direction, are warning signs for Democrats who seek to maintain control of Congress.
With an eye on midterm elections, some are predicting an apocalyptic scenario for the blue party, since inflation and gas prices continue going up and dissatisfaction with the president’s performance is skyrocketing.
This week, a Siena College/New York Times poll revealed that Biden has a 33 percent approval, while other polls place him at around 39 percent, a historical low number.
Most young people, the population group that boosted his victory in the 2020 presidential election, currently disapprove of the White House chief’s work.
In that context, the question is how much the president’s approval rates really matter in predicting congressional midterm results.
There is a direct relationship between the two variables: when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats, which is likely to occur this year, although times of high political polarization, such as now, tend to produce less dramatic changes in congressional races because there is a lower number of undecided voters, according to the FiveThirtyEight site.
The issues that led Democrats to win the House, Senate and White House in 2020 are still urgent and unresolved, while the Supreme Court interferes with federal protection laws concerning high-profile issues.
Recent court decisions eliminating the right to terminate pregnancy, limiting states’ ability to control firearms, and cut regulatory powers over emissions that contribute to global warming are beginning to delve into the voters’ minds.
Although in some areas where Democrats and Republicans have opposing views on abortion, for example, voters may elect to local positions those who come out for guaranteeing women’s reproductive rights, this is not a guarantee for the Democrats, according to a Vox website analysis.
On November 8, 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 34 of the Senate’s 100 will be up for grabs. Besides defining control of the Legislature, election results will give an idea of how voters will project themselves for the 2024 presidential balloting.
Prensa Latina
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